The Tampa Bay Derby – Grade III – $300,000 – Tampa Bay Downs – 1 1/16 Miles, by Brian Nadeau

While the local prep, the Grade III Sam Davis, went to the locals, the invaders look poised to take home the trophy this time. Let’s see if we can’t find a little value to spice up your Saturday.

Perfect Bull: Locally based charge seems ambitiously spotted, considering he’s never run in a anything but maiden races on the dirt. The longest shot on the board will need a drastic form reversal to get even a piece.

Musket Man: Saw his three-race winning streak stopped in the Davis, but he ran well to be third in what was his first start at two turns. So, he’s got some room for improvement on Saturday. Draws better here as well, and he should be a much better price. Siding against, but he could hang on for a share.

Nowhere To Hide: Will reportedly scratch out of the Louisiana Derby to run here, which seems a prudent move. He actually ran big in the Risen Star and that effort stamps him as a player in here. Tactical speed, in expert hands and an overlaid price to boot? Can’t fault anyone looking this way.

Hello Broadway: The likely favorite finally gets to show his stuff at two turns, which is what this half-brother to Nobiz Like Shobiz has been wanting all along. The problem is that he’s been difficult to settle in his races and that could prove troublesome today, with all the speed signed on. He’s probably the best horse, but it’s worth taking a strong stand against him at an underlaid price.

Warrior’s Reward: The fact that Wilkes sends him here is noteworthy, as he usually takes a patient approach. Chased Dunkirk home last time, and that rival would be a heavy favorite in this spot, so we know this guy has some class. He also might fall into a dream trip behind the speed, has the right running style, and therefore gets the call to pull a mild shocker and join the Derby fray.

Sumo: No idea where his last came from, but if he runs back to the big second in the Davis he can threaten. The problem is that he has regression written all over him, and until we see him put back-to-back top efforts together, it’s best to play against.

Join In The Dance: Pletcher picks an odd spot to try and stretch out this son of Sky Mesa, and his sprint speed says he’ll be in the mix early. He could be dangerous if he shakes loose, but there are several in here that might be thinking the same thing. Pop and fade seems likely.

General Quarters: The upset winner of the Davis was much the best that day and he could again take a lot of beating. Tactical speed ensures him of another dream trip and unlike some of the others, he’s got some back races to suggest he might not regress that much. The feel-good story of the young Triple Crown isn’t getting a lot of respect, but the feeling here is that he’s legit, so we’ll give him second billing today.

Bear’s Rocket: He sure looked good in his first start on dirt, setting the pace and digging in gamely to hold second in the Holy Bull. The issue is that Gulfstream had one of the worst speed biases in the history of Thoroughbred racing that day, so that effort could have been a bit fluky. Believers will get a heck of a price, but let’s watch one more.

Justdontcallmejeri: Always respect the O’Neill barn, so seeing him ship cross-country is duly noted. Turf/synthetic specialist tries dirt for the first time but appears to be well behind the others in terms of class, so we’ll pass today.

Top Seed: Can this colt please get a break? For the third time in a row he draws the far outside post. Another who saw a three-race unbeaten streak come to an end in the Davis, where he checked in 15 lengths behind General Quarters. He’s probably much better at one-turn and that post sure didn’t help matters.

To follow shortly: Brian’s look at the Rebel.