The Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – Grade II – $1,000,000 – 1 1/8 Miles, by Brian Nadeau

Captain Cherokee: Wasn’t disgraced in the Rebel and considering that that was his first start against stakes foes, he might be able to build off that run. Still, he meets a deeper cast in here and he’s going to have to improve a bundle to make an impact.

Papa Clem: Finished a distant second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby, which marked his first start on conventional dirt. He caught a bog that day, too, so there’s no telling how good or bad he’ll be on a fast strip. We all know what I Want Revenge has done since getting away from the fake stuff out west, so that alone will hurt your price a bit on this guy. But the positives are many, including a ton of tactical speed and a solid inside post. Throw in a nice price (9-2?) and a big name rider, and it all adds up to this guy getting the call for the win.

Flat Out: Looked good winning the Smarty Jones Stakes here earlier in the meet and he ran a sneaky good race in the Southwest as well. Skipped the Rebel so he comes here fresh but the issue today lies with the pace, which figures moderate, so his deep closing style might be compromised a bit. He could be flying late and crack the tri at a nice number, but the top two spots might be out of reach.

Poltergeist: His win three-back was one of the most impressive non-stakes performances by a 3-year-old this year, but he struggled to build on that effort when he was seventh in the Southwest. Got back on the beam a bit in the Rebel, but with his rally and the way the pace fell apart, he kind of had to run third, didn’t he? Plus Old Fashioned still beat him by 8 lengths. Maybe a fringe exotics player, but a win seems like a bit much.

Ziegfeld: Surprise entrant should be on or near the early pace, especially with the addition of blinkers. He does own a win at 9 furlongs and enters on the heels of a solid second-place finish over Turfway’s Polytrack, but even a minor award seems like an ambitious goal on Saturday.

Flying Private: Whether it was the Polytrack, the 9 furlongs or simply night and day improvement, this one ran a smasher at Turfway in the Lane’s End. The good news is that he was here and ran four times over the surface prior to leaving town; the bad news is that he never cracked the winner’s circle. He should be sitting a nice trip behind the early contingent and Ocampo has gotten the best out of this colt in his last two starts. A repeat of that last performance should give him a big shot. Adds to the list of contenders.

Summer Bird: Lightly raced and progressing nicely, but come on, guys, he just broke his maiden. He’d be up against it in the 75k Northern Spur on the undercard, so that tells you his chances in here.

Old Fashioned: No matter how you shake it out, it was nothing short of alarming how willingly he shortened stride late in the Rebel. And yes, he got caught up chasing a quick sprinter through some fast fractions–but isn’t that exactly the trip he got in his Southwest win and exactly the trip that made him everyone’s Derby favorite to begin with? And now all of a sudden Dominguez–one of the best on the planet–isn’t the guy? The good news is that this isn’t the toughest $1 million stakes you’re ever going to see and he gets a better pace scenario today. And don’t forget, Afleet Alex flopped prior to lapping the field in this race a few years back. It’s obviously way too early to give up on such a talented colt, but that also doesn’t mean you can’t pass on the 9-5 price and shop around for a bit more value. Put up or shut up time in this camp on Saturday.

Win Willy: Sure took his game to another level when he tried two turns for the first time in the Rebel. But it’s very fair to ask if he can do it again? While the Rebel came back fast in terms of the speed figure (102 Beyer), this guy’s late run was flattered by the insane pace as well as Old Fashioned’s less than inspiring stretch run. Saturday the pace doesn’t look quite as heated and the 56-1 you got last time looks like about 3-1 today. There’s no doubt this guy is formidable and due a ton of respect, but with all the question marks attached and the slashed price at the window, there’s no time like the present to make him do it again.

Danger To Society: He was favored in the Holy Bull; doesn’t that seem like 11 years ago? He was nowhere that day but he also had no chance with the intense inside speed bias at Gulfstream that day. A trainer change and a few months off, and now he finally gets back to the races in a last-ditch effort to make the Derby. We all know that Dutrow works wonders with horses making their first start under his care, so right away you probably should give a second look. There’s a bit of speed here too, which could have him sitting right off a moderate pace–and advantageously to the outside of Old Fashioned. If he drifts up into the 12-1 range, you could do a lot worse than taking a flyer on a well-bred sort who figures to run the best race of his career.