Well, by now we all know what happened in Saturday’s 135th Kentucky Derby. Or at least we all know what we saw. I think it’s fair to ask if we’ll ever know what really happened on Saturday. To briefly recap, the unheralded Mine That Bird took the racing world and 18 of the best 3-year-olds in training by storm, rallying from over 20 lengths behind under Calvin Borel to post a highly improbable 6 ¾-length win. Mine That Bird, sent off at 50-1, paid $103.20 to win in what rates as the second largest upset in Derby history. What’s even more shocking is that 50-1 is probably the underlay of the decade.
I’m trying to come to grips with what I saw on Saturday. Mine That Bird was not only a winner; he was about 30 lengths the best. Giacomo, also 50-1, seemed at least feasible in 2005. After all, he entered on the heels of a close fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby and had knocked heads with the best of the west all season, while hardly being disgraced. Oh, and he won by a half-length in a bad race where the pace completely fell apart.
On the other hand, Mine That Bird had never run in a graded stakes race on dirt and entered on the heels of a decent fourth-place finish in the Sunland Derby. His highest Beyer Speed Figure was a robust 81. He met a field generally regarded as above average. And somehow, someway he made them all look foolish.
Now, I don’t really have much faith in the Beyer numbers anymore. But one thing they do a great job of is at least narrowing down the field and telling you in which direction to look while sorting out the contenders from the pretenders. And yeah, the track was a bog and maybe some of the biggies didn’t handle it. And of course, let’s not forget the inside bias that seemed prevalent on Saturday. Sure, that’s all fine and dandy. But Mine That Bird won by 6 ¾ lengths and no one was even close! And the pace was average at best. And make no mistake; Pioneerof The Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem ran their race. So even if the track and rail and a few other things carried him, it didn’t turn him into the superstar we saw on Saturday. Right now it remains as one of the biggest shockers (and flukes?) in the history of our sport. I need to see it again in the Preakness to believe it. If you poll 1,000 industry “experts,” 998 would have said Mine That Bird would finish last. And that line would have formed right behind me.
A few side bars from my perspective: A buddy emailed me saying that Garrett Gomez in fact chose right with Pioneerof The Nile over Dunkirk. I just don’t see how you can even come close to making that assessment. ‘Pioneer raced up close to an average pace (for the Derby) while encountering little trouble while in the clear. All the while Dunkirk was mired in and amongst horses and looked like he was playing pinball for the first mile. When a horse like Dunkirk gets beaten 27+ lengths and Friesan Fire gets essentially eased and runs 18th, I don’t know how you can get any kind of bearing on the race. To me, it’s a complete and total toss.
Another friend said that if I Want Revenge had been in there, he would have won for fun. Well, folks, I’m not so sure Secretariat would have won on Saturday. Mine That Bird completed his final quarter in about 23 1/5. Big Red, for reference, did his in 23-flat. It’s a bit of a drastic comparison, but my point is that just because some improbable longshot won it doesn’t mean another good horse would have had his way if entered. This was an epic performance by Mine That Bird, no matter what his odds were and no matter who was in there opposing him.
Speaking of which, the other “argument” of the weekend was that the superstar filly Rachel Alexandra would have also won the Derby if she had chosen to run. I’m sure everyone saw her 20 ¼-length tour de force in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. First off, let me say I think Rachel Alexandra is an unbelievable filly and a talent we might not have seen on the distaff side in some time. Her combination of speed and stamina is unparalleled in her division.
But with that being said, far too many people are getting taken in by the margin of victory on Friday. With the exception of Flying Spur (who was through after 5 furlongs in the Oaks), the gals that lined up might not be bettable against $50,000 claimers. And there’s a major, major difference when you’re tracking the soft pace of Gabby’s Golden Gal and running away from five fillies at 9 furlongs, than when you’re racing on the pace against some classy colts, putting the leaders away turning for home and then fending off over a dozen more at 10 furlongs.
If she runs in the Belmont and catches a short field devoid of early pace–which is highly possible–then Rachel Alexandra can win for sure. But I’m OK with saying that if she were in there on Saturday she would have gotten drilled by Mine That Bird just like the rest of the boys did.
And finally, the winning rider of the Kentucky Derby always takes the next race off to do interviews and the like. Calvin Borel rode in it. I thought that was pretty cool and symbolic of the type of rider and person he is. –Brian Nadeau
Brooklyn Backstretch 
A thoughtful and well reasoned recap EXCEPT for the underlay rationale. If you look back in time at many horses of lesser accomplishment than MTB who went off at 30-1 and up, you might reconsider whether MTB was an underlay.
John, I understand your underlay point, but of all said 30-1 horses I can’t imagine any of them had never won a race on dirt or had never run in a graded race on dirt. Not to mention had never won a race in the United States or had never run a Beyer higher than 81. In that race on Saturday, against that field, and with what Mine That Bird brought to the table he was the underlay of the century. You honestly thought 50-1 was a fair price in a 19-horse field?For example, Join In The Dance was beaten in the shadow of the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby by Musket Man, who subsequently went on to air in the Illinois Derby. Behind Join In The Dance that day was General Quarters, who won the Sam Davis and then the Grade I Bluegrass. Join In The Dance also went in the Bluegrass, running a close fifth while racing on the front end over a track that kills speed. And he was 51-1 on Saturday.And what were Mine That Bird’s accomplishments? That he won three terrible Canadian (!) races over six-horse fields last fall in extremely slow time and got his head ripped off in the BC Juvenile while in the barn of a Hall of Fame trainer? And that he then failed to defeat the most modest of competition this spring at Sunland Park of all places?It’s for another discussion, and a relatively moot point anyway, but I’d wager a tasty and friendly beverage that any of the 30-1’s you were referring too had much, much better qualifications than Mine That Bird. I’d go so far as say any horse that has run in the Derby in the past 10 years had better accomplishments entering the starting gate than Mine That Bird did on Saturday. That’s strictly off the top of my head and maybe a tad drastic, but point being, Mine That Bird brought nothing to the table on Saturday that suggested he would run anywhere but last. And when that’s the case, in a 19-horse field filled with top-notch 3yo’s, a 50-1 price at the window is a huge, huge underlay.