Two Grade I’s highlight the Saturday card so let’s see if we can shake the 3-out of-4 tag and cash one. –Brian Nadeau
Race 8: The $70,000 John Hettinger for 3-year-old fillies at 1-mile on the inner turf.
2. Our Golden Dream: State-bred is on a nice little run but meets a pretty salty crew for this type of race. Drew well in here and seems plenty versatile, but thinking this is just a bit too tough for her.
3. Striking Dancer: Looked like a real comer late last year and again early this winter, but alas she went to the sidelines. With McPeek calling the shots, the layoff isn’t too much of a concern, so with a bit of maturity and a nice post she’s in the mix.
4. Complicity: Enters as the most experienced member of the cast (10 starts) and her last two have been a bit of a breakthrough, so you know she’s going in the right direction. The problem is that she’ll have to keep it up if she wants to factor for win honors.
5. Bluegrass Princess: They sure didn’t treat her too kindly on the trip down to Jersey, when she had a tough start and then endured some bumping prior to a sixth-place finish. Might be best to look past that run and focus on the rest of her resume, which is pretty solid. She’s got enough tactical speed to ensure a good trip and rates as the main danger to the favorite.
6. Kola Kola Kitty: Brings some serious speed to the party and there’s a good chance she clears off and takes them as far as she can on the engine. Speed players have their hero right here, but with no starts past 6 furlongs, she’ll be hard-pressed to last in the lane.
7. Perfect For You: Lone turf try this winter wasn’t any great shakes but she sure has a tidy pedigree for the grass. While it’s entirely possible she’s a much better filly than the one who ran sixth in that turf run, this is a tall task to say the least.
8. Maram: The heavy favorite is unbeaten but far from untested in her three career starts. Nothing wrong with having a nose for the wire either, as she showed in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, as well as the Miss Grillo. Yet to be seen in 2009 but don’t forget that Brown hails from right down Route 67, so you’d think he’ll have this girl ready to roll for the hometowners. Pace, or lack of, might be a concern but she showed last year that she’s got a serious turn of foot when called upon. Quite possible that she’s not ready to fire her best shot, but even more possible that it won’t matter. Obviously the horse to beat.
1. Kiawah Cat: Has progressed nicely in her young career and just missed in the Grade III Boiling Springs last out at Monmouth. Drops in class, though you could argue that this is an even tougher assignment today, but if you’re looking to beat the favorite, she’s near the top of the list.
9. Mystic Miracle: Looked good winning an entry-level allowance at Monmouth but this represents a stiff test for a horse that needed maiden-claimers to get the job done in New York, so let’s wait for an easier spot.
10. Project Rose: That Sheppard guy isn’t too bad, and while a filly that’s never run past 5 ½ furlongs or on the turf would be easily dismissed, you need to take a second look when the Master is calling the shots. Augustin homebred has some tactical speed and a bit of turf pedigree to boot, so while she’s likely to get ignored at the window, I’m thinking there’s some serious talent here. Look out.
11. Bum Bum (Also Eligible): Needs a scratch to draw in, and even if she does, it’s tough to figure how that European form stacks up on this side of the pond. Does get first-Lasix, which can wake a horse up, but unless she takes a ton of tote action, let’s watch one and see if we can use her down the road.
12. Gemswick Park (MTO): For once there doesn’t seem to be any rain in the forecast, so this one looks to be staying on. If it does somehow come off, this Grade III winner would rate as the obvious horse to beat.
1a. Kiddari (MTO): Allowance winner at 7 furlongs at Churchill seems far behind ‘Gemswick, even if this one is played on the main track.
13. Daily Star (MTO): Freshened after a poor run in a minor stakes at Belmont and looks third best of the gals hoping for a rainstorm.
Race 9: The Grade I, $300,000 Test for 3-year-old fillies at 7 furlongs.
1. Pretty Prolific: Yet to win a stakes, so getting it out of the way in the historic Grade I Test seems a bit ambitious. The pace should be legit, so maybe she can rally into a minor award, but that’s about it.
2. Cat Moves: How good was that Prioress? She’s run twice in her life, never in a graded stakes, meets a bunch of tough sprinters and completely blows the break–and all she does is run away from her stablemate and nab a Grade I score. And while normally the Test comes up ultra-tough, there’s no one named Victory Ride or Xtra Heat heading to post. Throw in the fact that she still has room for improvement with only three starts under her belt and might like this trip that much more, and you have a rock-solid favorite.
3. Old Glamour: State-bred looks completely overmatched, especially when you notice speed is her main weapon and there’s no shortage of it signed on. An obvious outsider.
4. Heart Ashley: That fleet score in the Grade III Cicada gets further and further away by the day, doesn’t it? She did get the job done in the Grade III Miss Preakness, but that was against a weak crew and the time didn’t have anyone running for cover. Got completely fried in the Prioress, and that was at 6 furlongs, so you can’t be very comfortable that she’ll get the 7 here.
5. First Passage: Grade III Azalea victor ran a career-best that day at Calder, but that was over her home course right in her backyard. Now she ships up the East Coast for a run at Grade I-glory, but we’ve seen this move from Wolfson fail before with his reclamation projects. Her last stamps her as a major contender–if not the horse to beat–and she’s got the right closing style to be scary in that last furlong, but I think I need to see one outside of Florida before I get enticed.
6. Flashing: Clearly rates as the best of the speed brigade, though not quite sure what she was doing dueling in the 9-furlong Mother Goose with ‘Rachel sitting in behind. Drew a nice attack post for this run and she did show in her debut that she doesn’t have to have the lead. Gets the Mig–which is neat in and of itself–and has the look of a dangerous runner if the Mother Goose wallop didn’t take too much out of her. The price will be right for those who believe.
7. Reforestation: Connections got exactly what they wanted in the Prioress: a Grade I placing. With that being said, she never really made Cat Moves take notice down the lane, nor did she run any better than her previous runs. Still, she beat six horses to the line and there’s no reason she can’t do it again here, especially if the speed wilts. Logical exacta partner to the favorite.
8. All Of Her Twist: Sure ran well in the Dearly Precious at Monmouth when she rallied from sixth to win going away at 6 furlongs. And that’s no small feat down there, as the off the pace style isn’t always the best way to get unsaddled. Takes a huge step up in class, but if she doesn’t regress, she has a shot to hit the board.
Race 10: The Grade I, $750,000 Whitney Handicap for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/18 miles.
1. Smooth Air: The only question is whether or not he can get 9 panels against top company. Of course, you can counter and ask if this really is top company? Commentator aside, it’s not really Will’s Way, Formal Gold and Skip Away, is it? Anywho, this 4-year-old has done nothing wrong in his career and has been knocking on the door to win this type of race all season. Is today the day? He’s going to sit a dream trip behind the speed and drew a great post position to boot, so you’ve got to believe the only excuse he has is not being good enough. With Commentator taking a boatload of cash, you’re going to get a better price than you should to find out. Definitely in the mix.
2. Asiatic Boy: Ok, let’s be honest here, with his gaudy reputation and giant connections, he should have won the Foster and/or the Suburban. Yet not only did he fail, he never once looked like a winner. At least you won’t have to take 8-5 again, but I think we all saw with Charitable Man in the Jim Dandy that you just never know what the tote will read with this barn. If you’re still on the bandwagon, you can say he was short for the Foster and then rushed back too soon at a trip too far in the Suburban, and yet with all that, he still didn’t run poorly. I can’t believe I’m saying it, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
3. Bullsbay: The type of horse everyone wants in their barn. He just goes out, puts his head down and gives you everything he has each time he meets the starter. Except in 10-furlong races on the West Coast, that is. And so it’s easy to excuse the run in the Gold Cup, which leaves you with a bunch of nice runs this season. The only problem is none of those runs will get him a picture in the mail from the cameraman, and while he could jump up and run a career best, don’t you think it would have happened in one of those seven starts this year? Mixed signals.
4. Macho Again: This guy gets knocked a lot, but when it’s all said and done he’ll retire with a damn fine resume, and there’s probably plenty more to come too. His win in the Foster was top stuff; rallied wide behind a relatively slow pace and drew off to score the first Grade I win of his career. Sure, Einstein didn’t have the best of trips and Asiatic Boy might not have been ready to fire, but you still have to go out there and do it. Showed last year in the Jim Dandy that he gets along fine with the main track here and you know the distance will hit him right between the eyes. He rolled home in the Foster after they went :48 for the half and they should be cooking a lot faster in here. Major player.
5. Tizway: Those looking to beat Commentator will be ecstatic this lightly raced 4yo is signed on because he brings some serious speed to the party. He’s never run in a graded stakes nor won a two-turn race on the main track, but if you’re a Beyer guy that 102 he earned at Belmont is about as good as anyone can cling to in here. Still, he’s got to wire the Whitney with Commentator breathing down his neck the entire way around. Not likely.
6. Dry Martini: Give him credit in the Suburban; he just kept grinding and was there to take advantage of a bunch of horses that didn’t seem like they wanted to win. But there’s reason for a few of the others to be a tad sharper today as that run was at 10 furlongs and today they’re only going 9. Sure did look good in his local breeze on Sunday when he fired a bullet best-of-77 move at 5 furlongs in a ridiculous 58 4/5. Clearly one of the ones but it’s not going to be easy.
7. Commentator: Easy to root for this grizzled old veteran as he’s what the game is all about. Still going strong at 8 and looks to become just the third horse to win the Whitney three times. With that being said, you do play this game with your wallet and not your heart (well, most of the time) and his two Whitney scores have come under optimum circumstances when he’s been allowed to set an uncontested pace. And yeah, he’s drilled MUCH better than he meets here, but the caveat this year is that there’s no free pass on the lead like in 2005 and 2008. Tizway drew to his inside and has shown sub :46 speed, so you know full well that guy’s going. And don’t you speed figure nuts out there wish he had run just a bit faster in the Kashatreya? That’s normally the type of race he fires about a 117 Beyer, yet this time around he got a paltry 97. I’m not saying he’s going to lose and I’m not rooting for it to happen–but the tote’s going to tell you he’s about 3-5 to win this thing and that’s just not the case. But with all that being said, it’s quite obvious the path to the winner’s circle goes through this all-timer.
Race 11: 5 ½ furlongs on the Mellon turf for $35,000 claimers, F&M 3-year-olds and up.
2. Seattle Grey: Makes her first start on turf and first for a tag, but has been going the wrong way of late. Shown a bit of speed in the past so maybe she can wake up on the drop, but not expecting it.
3. Imthequeenofqueens: Her lone turf sprint wasn’t bad at all; she rallied boldly against state-bred maidens and won going away. That closing style can work here as well, so give her a long look.
1. We’re Hooked: It’s Rice, so right away you need to pay attention. Ran big in the Stallion back in May and then was steadied while in contention in her last. Drops in for the tag and rates an obvious contender.
1a. Pals First Lady: Rice’s other runner needed state-bred maiden claimers to get the job done and now she tackles winners and the turf for the first time. With Garcia named on both, it’s likely only one will start, and here’s hoping it’s ‘Hooked.
4. Miss Dolan’s Rose: The hood comes off, but it’s been a long time since this gal has done any real running, so we’ll pass and wait for some improvement before backing.
5. Stayawaystella: Broke dead last but closed like a freight train in her last, and you have to assume with an alert beginning she won’t be spotting the field a dozen lengths. And that means she’s going to be mighty dangerous come crunch time.
6. Treat Her Right: Yet to win on turf but her three runs have been solid. Castellano back aboard and he got to know her at Belmont, so she’s yet another in with a winning chance in a real head-scratcher.
7. Big Bonnie: Makes her turf debut and enters on the heels of a romp against state-bred maiden claimers. She seems to have some talent but this is a pretty steep leap in class. Passing.
8. Day Trippi: If you’re not familiar with Merrill Scherer, he’s one of the better Midwesterners when it comes to playing the claiming game and he already scored once at the meet. This filly has never tried the turf, but just the fact that she’s here and lined up says she means business. Adds yet another piece to a perplexing puzzle.
9. First To Come Home: Yet another who tries turf for the first time and it’s not a very good move (3-for-74) for what’s normally a very solid barn. With that in mind, let’s make her prove it first.
10. Tooralooracollora: She’s sprinted on the grass three times in her career and all three have been top efforts. Has the speed to be involved early but isn’t the need the lead type either. If you need to stand alone with someone, you could do worse.
11. Our Montana Dream: The 1-for-37 ledger says it all, so even though she’s run a few races that can threaten here, it’s just not prudent to include this type.
12. Tutti Va Bene: Cuts back to a sprint, the distance she got her lone win at, so it’s probably the right move. And those routes she’s been running in have probably put a little bottom into her as well, so though she goes for an extremely low-profile barn, you could use her on a big spread.
13. Latest Secret (MTO): An obvious contender and arguably the horse to beat should this one come off the grass, but with sunny skies in the forecast she looks like she’ll be waiting for another day.
Brian’s $56 Pk4 ticket: 1,3,5,10—2—1,2—1,3,5,6,8,10,12