OK, it’s Breeders’ Cup, so let’s have a little fun while expanding the bankroll just a little bit. After all, if you can’t do it these two days then you never can. I’ll give selections (gulp) and notes for each race and then put together a few exotic tickets as well. Good luck, everyone, and enjoy the races!
Race 3: The $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon for 3&up at 1 ¾ miles.
You’ve got to think the edge goes to the Euros in this spot so I’ll chalk out with MASTERY, who not only seems like the best stayer in the race but also the horse with the most tactical speed to boot; don’t expect to get rich, but it’s always nice to get your BC Day off to a good start. FATHER TIME has chased the pick home in his last two and looks poised to do so again and complete a chalky exacta; should be the one to fear late. CLODY’S KNIGHT is the typical Sheppard reclamation project and you ignore the Master at your own risk. As for the others: Black Astor seems like a pace casualty; defending champ Muhannak was a better horse last year; Nite Light could get mighty brave if they leave him alone early; Sir Dave is an interesting bomber if you are looking to upset the apple cart; Eldaafer was a decent fourth in a weak GIII on synthetic; Man Of Iron calls Rags To Riches and Casino Drive older siblings, never a bad thing, and Gangbuster isn’t the worst price play in the world.
Race 4: The $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at 1-mile.
LILLY LANGTRY, who cut her teeth in some pretty solid European stakes and held her own quite nicely, meets an extremely soft cast of Americans (even for this level); gets a few bonus points for already dealing successfully with a 14-horse field. SMART SEATTLE finished behind a pair of rivals here but might like the slight cutback in distance; might also benefit from more patient handling. HOUSE OF GRACE was up late to nail Smart Seattle in the Jessamine at Keeneland and her late rally might get set up once again. As for the others: Potosina can work out a trip from the rail and threaten at a big number; Elusive Galaxy wasn’t far behind the top choice in Europe; Rose Catherine will look to take them all the way but meets others that want to mix it up early; La Nez is a tad interesting on the surface switch, especially with her tactical speed; Jungle Tale should be flying late and might be sitting on a big run; Hatheer is bred in the purple but hasn’t lived up to the hype–yet; Tapitsfly got loose at the Spa but that won’t happen here; Junia Tepzia is a complete unknown who has yet to be tested–tab the board and Lisa’s Kitten has shown she doesn’t need a strong pace to still come flying late and.
Race 5: The Grade I, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles.
ZILVA drew ideally and is making nice progress, especially since stretching to two turns; must improve off her fourth in the GI Alcibiades at Keeneland, but you’ll get a nice price to find out if she’s this good in a field that doesn’t seem to have any superstars on paper. BLIND LUCK stormed home in the Grade I Oak Leaf over the course and distance, an impressive feat when you look at the tepid 47 2/5 half-mile split; figures to get even more pace in here and might simply be the best horse in the race. SHE BE WILD just missed in the Alcibiades and deserves a long look based on her tactical speed. As for the others: Ms Vanenzza is an unknown on turf but has done little wrong in her two races; Beautician didn’t have a bad trip in the Alcibiades–she just wasn’t good enough; Bickersons rates a longshot look based on her third in the Oak Leaf; Connie And Michael could be free-wheeling on the lead but will be an underlay in tackling a tremendous assignment in just her second lifetime start; Devil May Care is perfect in two starts, including a GI score in the Frizette, but the East Coast runners struggled in last year’s Cup on the surface switch; Champagne d’Oro seems overmatched; Negligee got to the wire first in the Alcibiades but others seem to have more upside–and price; no major knocks on Always A Princess, just not sure she’s good enough, especially off this draw, and Biofuel figures to be completely ignored at the windows but looked like a new horse stretching out at Woodbine; live longshot to be sure.
Race 6: The Grade I, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf at 1 ¼ miles.
If she didn’t hang in the Canadian and got a better timed ride in the First Lady, FOREVER TOGETHER would be 4-for-5 on the year and looking like a cinch to take her second F&M Turf. Instead, she’s just 2-for-5 and getting knocked for having lost a step; all it means is you’ll get a better price at the windows. RUTHERIENNE deserves a ton of admiration for her consistency, as she gives you everything she has every time out; stretches out a bit for the first time in her career and that late rally might finally get there at the longer trip. MIDDAY comes to California with some solid European form that should stack up nicely against some suspect Americans; rates as a major danger to the leading pair. As for the others: Visit seems a cut below; Magical Fantasy has beaten softies all year and gets the acid test at underlaid odds; Pure Clan benefited from the bog at Belmont and wasn’t even planning on coming before that run; Dynaforce won’t get her preferred course; and Maram will look much better a year from now in this race at CD.
Race 7: The Grade I, $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs.
Tough to look past VENTURA, who won this race last year and might be in even better form this time around; lone concern is her habit of waiting on horses. INFORMED DECISION is perfect in six synthetic tries and got the better of the top choice in the GI Madison earlier in the year; should get the jump on the pick and that could be key. SARA LOUISE might very well be the most talented miss in the race but she has yet to try a synthetic surface, which means she’s spotting a ton of experience to two stars; poised for a monster 2010, but this might be too much too soon. As for the others: Free Flying Soul seems like a pace casualty; Game Face freaked in the GI Rooney but hasn’t been able to reproduce that Calder run elsewhere; Only Green probably snuck onboard stablemate Goldikova’s plane; Silver Swallow is a late threat to spice up the exotics; same goes for Evita Argentina and Seventh Street, who might be here simply because Godolphin is loaded for the Ladies Classic and who looks like a play against in this odd spot.
Race 8: The Grade I, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic at 1 1/8 miles.
Pace makes the race, and with none of it signed on, CARELESS JEWEL looks long gone on the front end. Her dirt form is better, but she’s had success on the synthetics and should have this field at her mercy early. Rachel who? LIFE IS SWEET is at the mercy of the pace but is 3-for-4 at SA and owns an electric turn of foot; seems poised for a huge run. MUSIC NOTE could very well go favored but a 7-furlong sprint in the slop at the Spa and a one-turn GI that was more of a listed stakes at Belmont are a far cry from the circumstances she meets here; worth trying to beat. As for the others: Mushka benefited from an insane pace in the GI Spinster and that won’t be the case here; Lethal Heat will be close early but seems destined to fade; Proviso, who scored in the Spinster but was taken down for acting up late, is another in need of a hot pace; Cocoa Beach was second in this race last year but just doesn’t look as solid this time around; and Rainbow View fits on class and could cap off a monster day for Augustin.
We’ll try a Pk4 starting with the Juvenile Fillies, the 5th race on the card.
Main ticket: Zilva, Blind Luck, Connie And Michael, Devil May Care, She Be Wild, Negligee, Always A Princess, Biofuel WITH Forever Together, Rutherienne WITH Sara Louise, Informed Decision, Ventura WITH Careless Jewel…that’s a 8x2x3x1 for $48
Backup ticket: Ms Vanenzza, Beautician, Bickersons, Champagne d’Oro WITH Forever Together, Rutherienne WITH Ventura WITH Careless Jewel…that’s a 4x2x1x1 for $8
Backup ticket: Zilva, Blind Luck, Connie And Michael, Devil May Care, She Be Wild, Negligee, Always A Princess, Biofuel WITH Forever Together, Rutherienne WITH Ventura WITH Life Is Sweet…that a 8x2x1x1 for $16.