The Grade III, $200,000 Withers Stakes at 1 1/16 miles

#1 Hakama: Impressed with a front-running score at Laurel to make it 2-for-2 withblinkers and at two turns, and he enters this much tougher spot as the “now horse” from a cozy rail draw. There’s other speed signed on, but with this advantageous draw, he figures to make the point and go from there, and that would likely have him in a pretty enviable position as they come off the far turn. The question now is if he’s good enough, and with Alpha entered you’ll get an overlaid price to find out, so there’s no reason you can’t pay to find out; intriguing over a track that’s known to carry speed.

#2 Speightscity: Honest runner has blinked when he’s faced stakes runners but has handled his other assignments, so right away you have to wonder if he’s classy enough to beat this group. Owns a nice stalking gear that should yield a good trip, but he’s got 10 lengths to make up on Alpha and there are a few others that figure to be in between that gap, so until he shows he can play with these, he’s a longshot; needs softer to threaten.

#3 Swag Daddy: Versatile sort enters off a pair of track and distance (well, 1mile and 70 yards) wins, but this group of open foes won’t be impressed with those state-bred wins he’s posted in his last pair. Did it on the lead last time but he closed prior to that, so you know he doesn’t need to be in front, which is a good thing here, but when push comes to shove, the gut says this will simply be out of his scope; playing against.

#4 King Kid: Lightly raced runner didn’t disgrace himself when he went right into stakes competition off his debut win, but the runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby was nowhere in an allowance last weekend (though it came over a sloppy track), so not sure if that stakes was all that hot. At least you know he’s bred to handle the trip and then some, and with just two starts he’s got a ton of room for improvement, not to mention a ground-saving post; those looking for the upset probably land here.

#5 How Do I Win: The so-called “fastest 2yo at Saratoga” took a while to get into gear, but he’s finally started to show some positive signs of late and his fourth to Alpha in the Count Fleet wasn’t that bad. The bar gets raised again and he’ll have to show he can handle the jump, but he’s got a two-turn run under his belt now and Pletcher calling the shots, so you could be convinced to use him at a price; not impossible for a minor award.

#6 Tiger Walk: Well-bred runner looked sharp winning his 2yo finale going a flat mile at Laurel, and he enters 2012 as an up-and-comer and with bullets in tow for a sharp barn. Owns some tactical speed that might be able to negate this wide draw, and if he builds off his last, he can be a player against a group like this, though he better have his running shoes on to beat the guy next door; in the mix.

#7 Alpha: Overwhelming favorite finally put things together with an authoritative win in the Count Fleet, and while the waters get deeper here, the path to the winner’s circle still goes through him. Showed immense talent as a 2yo and seemingly turned the corner with Lasix added for his 3yo debut, and though he drew terribly, he’s versatile enough to let Ramon place him anywhere he needs to be and try and win this off the far turn; imposing odds-on favorite, ugly post and all.

Selections:

#7 Alpha

#1 Hakama

#4 King Kid

For more of Brian’s insights on New York racing, check him out at Horseplayer Now