Tampa Bay Downs: The Grade II, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/16 miles

#1 Prospective: Runner-up in the track and distance GIII Sam Davis to fellow entrant Battle Hardened adds blinkers today to gain a little more speed early on, as he’s been dropping a bit too far out of it during the first half-mile. He’s run well in both starts this year, including a sprint win in the local Pasco to kick off his campaign, and with this ground-saving draw and a bit more speed early, there’s no reason to think he’s not a major player; clearly capable.

#2 Golden Ticket: Enters off an off-the-turf MSW at Gulfstream Park and will really need to step it up to factor in this deep and contentious GII. Son of BC Sprint winner Speightstown isn’t really bred for this trip and meets several battle tested stakes foes; longshot.

#3 Twin: Finally broke his maiden against Florida-breds in his last start going a one-turn mile at GP; steps way up and has the look of the longest shot on the board; needs much, much softer to threaten.

#4 Chief Energy: Well-bred son of Ghostzapper owns just a MSW against five rivals at Monmouth Park to his credit and has not met the starter since August, so it’s tough to envision him factoring against a crew like this; overmatched.

#5 Tell All You Know: He’s been a new horse this year as he’s 2-for-2 over the local strip after never threatening in three starts as a 2yo, and now he’ll try to carry his speed two turns for the first time. There’s little doubt to the plan, as he’s going to break running, make the front and try to hold on, and while he’s the inside speed, there is some other zip signed on, so nothing figures to be free. There’s a lot of talent here and if they let him go then maybe he gets brave, but the gut says he blinks when the real running begins; using underneath, if at all.

#6 Cozetti: Romans runner has been doing the turf thing of late but did break his maiden in an off-the-turfer going two turns in the slop at Churchill Downs last fall, so at least you know he can handle the main track. Romans used the turf-to-dirt angle to run second with News Pending behind Union Rags in the GII Fountain of Youth last month, so he knows how to turn the trick. Still, this guy really has never threatened winners and will likely need more than a few to stub their toe to factor; minor award appears to be his ceiling.

#7 Battle Hardened: Broke his maiden in the Davis and that’s never easy to do, so you better respect his talent and not write it off as a fluke. Hails from expert connections as Kenneally and Leparoux form a potent duo, and this colt has the look of a real comer in a division that is still there for the taking. Figures to set up shop just off the early lead and make his move off the far turn, much like he did in the Davis, and he should only be that much tougher with that initial win behind him; gets the call to double up.

#8 Ravelo’s Boy: Deep closer ran a commendable fourth in the Davis while racing extremely wide and that run represented a new lifetime top, so there’s a chance he really enjoy this deep and sandy track. Bounce theorists will be out in full force today, thinking he’ll regress off a lifetime best, but deep closers usually aren’t as susceptible to that so maybe he just keeps plugging along; could be the right bomb in your exotics—again.

#9 Spring Hill Farm: Enters undefeated and untested in two starts for Pletcher and this speedster will try to negotiate two turns for the first time while really not owning any edge speed figure-wise. He’s been very sharp so far but we had the same scenario with the sprinter/miler Discreet Dancer from this very barn in the Fountain of Youth, and that colt gave it up badly when the real running began, so you better tread lightly here. Respecting his talent, but with this wide draw and potential need-the-lead running style, we’ll toss him completely and let him beat us at paltry odds; major underlay.

#10 Take Charge Indy: Impeccably bred son of A.P. Indy out of superstar mare Take Charge Lady was a solid fifth in the BC Juvenile and then a big second to subsequent GII Risen Star winner El Padrino in a salty GP optional claimer in the slop to open his 3yo season. The sky appears the limit for this Byrne trainee, but remember, he’s yet to run overly fast on dry land and didn’t exactly get any help from the draw today, so there are some hurdles. Seems tactical enough to be close early, but you have to wonder if he’ll get strung out wide around the first turn, which could spell doom to his chances, though he still warrants a ton of respect, bad post and all; appears the one to beat.

#11 Fox Rules: Raced up close early in the Davis before tiring late to finish sixth, and the waters get deeper today, so unless he’s going to improve about 10 lengths, he’s in well over his head; seems an easy toss.

#12 Cajun Charlie: La-bred has wired stakes foes going two turns in his last two starts and now steps into open company for the first time in a mighty ambitious spot. Seems to have a ton of talent and he is a two-time stakes winner, but his speedy style doesn’t figure to play out well in a race that should have an ample pace; not expecting him to make a dent to a group like this.

Selections:

#7 Battle Hardened

#1 Prospective

#10 Take Charge Indy