Tampa Bay Downs: The Grade III, $250,000 Sam F. Davis at 1 1/16 miles (Kentucky Derby qualifying points 10-4-2-1) by Brian Nadeau #1 Navy Armed Guard (15-1): The lone maiden has actually run about as fast as anyone but the chalk in his last two on the dirt, which includes a neck loss when second…

Brian Nadeau is back this year to offer insight and analysis on this year’s road to the Kentucky Derby. A handicapper at Horseplayer Now and Capital OTB, he’ll analyze every official Derby points race and the three Triple Crown races, back at Brooklyn Backstretch for the sixth year. Tampa Bay Downs: The Grade III, $250,000 Sam…