Fair Grounds: The Grade II, $300,000 Risen Star at 1 1/16 miles

#3 Afford: Homebred stretched out and scored off the layoff last time in his 3yo debut, and that’s hardly a surprise as he’s bred top and bottom to get a distance of ground. Drew well here and will save all the ground as he attempts stakes foes for the first time and seems to be coming up to this the right way; intriguing newcomer rates a long look for all the slots.

#4 Optimizer: Highly regarded turf/synthetic runner hasn’t done much in a trio of dirt runs and exits a modest sixth-place finish in Oaklawn Park’s Smarty Jones to kick off his 3yo season. The Smarty Jones earned a big figure but came under scrutiny last week when none of the top finishers raised a hoof in the GIII Rebel at Oaklawn, so it’s tough to tout this colt out of that race; minor award appears his ceiling.

#1 Mr. Bowling: Scored a determined win in the local GIII Lecomte in a lifetime best run, which is a good sign considering it was his 3yo debut. Governor Jones’ homebred offers expert connections and should sit a nice trip, which means he’ll be winding up through the long stretch, much like he did in the Lecomte. Has done little wrong in five lifetime starts for Larry Jones and a win over the track is never to be taken lightly; figures to make his presence felt, though others rate higher.

#5 Z Dager: Headed out by Mr. Bowling in the Lecomte but lost nothing in defeat, as that was just his third career start and first route on dry land. Asmussen runner has come to hand quickly and reminds you a bit of Zayat’s top 3yo of last year, Nehro, which isn’t bad company to be mentioned in. Versatile sort can press the pace or sit midpack, which is a plus today as the pace is a bit muddled; he will likely look to win this off the far turn; scary talent is poised for a breakthrough.

#6 Ted’s Folly: Deep closer won a pricey Remington Park stakes to close out his 2yo season but then came up wanting when testing the big boys in the Lecomte, so you have to worry about his class. Sure, maybe he can improve with that run behind him, and it’s tough to knock a 6-for-9 runner, but this just looks too tough for him; longshot.

#2 Adena’s Chance: The most experienced member of the field enters off a sharp second in an optional claimer when sprinting locally, but his route runs just haven’t been nearly as good. He’s yet to beat anyone but claimers, loses Sellers to Z Dager and simply looks outgunned here; tough to tout.

#2b Hero Of Order: ‘Chance’s entrymate brings some speed to the fray and could even be your pacesetter, if no one inside gets the urge to go early. Necked out by his entrymate last time and that’s not really a ringing endorsement today, so unless they forget about him early and let him walk on the lead, he’s in for a long day; pace player.

#7 El Padrino: Pletcher trainee delivered on the promise of his 2yo season with a poised and professional score over a good group of optional claimers at Gulfstream Park in his 3yo bow. Threw down a 100 Beyer that day, a number no one in the field can even come close to, though it was probably inflated a bit due to the wet surface, and it is worth noting that this colt has yet to win on a fast one. The development from the Remsen, when he was rank and uncomfortable tracking inside, to the GP run, when he settled nicely and then tipped out and instantly went after a very talented Take Charge Indy on the far turn, was clearly evident and stamped him as one of the best 3yo’s in training; can’t see anyone in this cast being able to handle him.

#1a Mark Valeski: Mr. Bowling’s entrymate stretches out off a trip of impressive sprint runs and quite possibly could be the speed of the speed, should Napravnik want to send him early. Son of Proud Citizen is bred to handle this trip and looked good winning his 3yo debut over the local oval, so you know he likes it here as well. In expert hands for Larry Jones and gets a few bonus points as he figures to benefit the most from today’s race flow; adds depth to the entry.

#8 Shared Property: Flew home after breaking from the parking lot in the Lecomte to get third, and a few more jumps and he might have gotten his picture taken. That was his first start at 3 and first start going long on conventional dirt, so even though the pace flattered him, it was still a sharp effort, to say the least. The issue today is the pace, or lack thereof, as it doesn’t figure to be as hot as it was in the Lecomte, which means his stretch rally might not be so potent; siding against today.

#9 Tizanexpense: Son of Tiznow made it 2-for-2 going two turns over this track when he was up late to win an optional claimer last month. Steps way up today and got no favors from the draw, but he is improving rapidly and warrants the stakes try, and it’s not like Maker likes to throw his horses in where they don’t belong; passing today but worth remembering the name.

Selections:

#7 El Padrino

#5 Z Dager

#3 Afford